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Newspaper: U.S. Fed draws some fire over inflation views
www.chinaview.cn 2007-03-10 00:36:59
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    WASHINGTON, March 9 (Xinhua) -- A group of experts on Federal Reserve policy said in a study that the nation's central bank puts too much weight on the public's expectations for inflation, a practice the group argues could lead to complacency in the face of an inflation threat, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

    The study, prepared for a conference in Washington Friday to be attended by several Fed policy makers, suggests that the Fed is risking higher inflation over the next few years, which could necessitate more drastic increases in interest rates later on.

    Fed officials, however, are unlikely to agree with the study's conclusions or to change their current interest-rate stance as a result, the report said.

    The theoretical role of inflation expectations as a factor in inflation has persuaded some Fed officials to "focus intensively" on them as the main driver of inflation, the study said. "Our results suggest that this practice may be misguided."

    In theory, if the public expects a pickup in inflation, wages and prices are more likely to rise, making those expectations become self-fulfilling. For the same reason, if stable prices are expected, inflation is more likely to remain low, according to the report.

    A "significant factor influencing medium-term trends in inflation is the public's expectations of inflation," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in February. "It is encouraging that inflation expectations appear to have remained contained."

    However, the study says since 1985, surveys of the public's expectations of inflation have largely lost their ability to predict actual inflation. Now, "expectations seem more likely to follow than lead...inflation," it said. 

Editor: Mu Xuequan
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