CAIRO, May 1 (Xinhua) -- The international conference on Iraq, slated for May 3-4 in Egypt's Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, is widely believed to mark another significant change in U.S. Mideast policies, but Egyptian analysts still feel pessimistic over Iraq's future.

    The high-profile ministerial meeting will gather senior diplomats from Iraq's six neighbors -- Iran, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait -- plus Bahrain, Egypt, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Conference and the United Nations.

    Also attending will be senior diplomats from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council -- the United States, Britain, Russia, China and France -- and members of the G-8, including Germany, Canada, Japan and Italy.

    Sharm el-Sheikh conference will be the first international ministerial meeting on Iraq since the U.S.-led coalition forces seized Baghdad in April of 2003.     

    IRAQI SECURITY SITUATION IS IMPROVING?

    On the eve of such an international conference, there was no evidence that security situation in the war-torn nation was becoming better, as was suggested by senior Iraqi officials including Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

    In the latest attack, a suicide bomber blew himself up at a funeral in the town of Khalis, some 75 km north of Baghdad, on Monday afternoon, killing at least 32 people and injuring 63 others.

    Abdel-Monem Said, Director of Egypt's Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Xinhua that the Iraqi situation was still bad and complicated and things were not over.

    Although Maliki claimed during his visit to Egypt on April 22 that the Iraqi situation was better than what was reported in the media, yet Iraqis were dying in various attacks every day and a lot of refugees are trying to leave Iraq, said Said.

    A rough calculation showed that at least 1,500 Iraqis died since Feb. 14 when the U.S. military and the Iraqi government launched a security plan called "Law and Order."

    In an editorial article on April 22, The New York Times said, "Car bombings and other violence now kill an average of 100 people a day.... And an incredible total of four million people ¨C one out of every seven Iraqis -- have been forced to flee their homes."

    CHANGE OF U.S. MIDEAST POLICIES UNDER WAY

    Said, of Al-Ahram Center, said the Iraqi issue was entangled with other problems in the Middle East, such as the dispute over Iran's nuclear program, the crisis over the Golan Heights between Israel and Syria, the issue regarding the Kurdish people and the Lebanon issue.

    Analysts said the Bush administration has come to realize that it can't solve the Iraqi crisis alone, and it had no choice but to change its policies towards Iraq and the Middle East.

    Since the Iraqi war in 2003, the U.S. government has changed its Mideast policies several times, including the one last July when U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice coined a new policy called "New Middle East."

    Under the new policy, the U.S. hoped to join hands with its Mideast allies in order to isolate and humiliate American adversaries in the region, including Iran and Syria.

    Such policy, however, didn't work. David Ignatius, a U.S.-based columnist, wrote in an article run by the Washington Post on April20 that the U.S. has been "in self-imposed diplomatic isolation" in the Middle East during the past few years.

    "Rice's past diplomatic efforts have been limited by the Bush administration's tendency... to refuse the very process of dialogue with adversaries that might resolve problems. Isolation hasn't worked, and Rice is now charting the pathways out," Ignatius said in his article.

    The Bush administration was working on "a regional solution to the nightmare of Iraq," and Rice will take a crucial step when she meets with Iranian and Syrian foreign ministers at the Sharm el-Sheikh conference, said Ignatius.

    A face-to-face encounter by Rice and her Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki in Sharm el-Sheikh follows a rare meeting by diplomats from the two adversaries at an ambassador-level conference in Baghdad on March 10.

    More than that, U.S. President George W. Bush said in a TV interview on April 24 that Rice might hold bilateral talks with Mottaki in Sharm el-Sheikh on the Iraqi issue.

    In addition, U.S. Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns was quoted by American media as saying that the U.S. government "crossed some bridges" to decide to hold the Sharm el-Sheikh conference and the U.S. "now agreed to sit down with the Syrians and Iranians at the table."

    Bush and Burns' remarks were a clear detachment by the Bush administration from its past policy in the Middle East, which was opposed to direct talks with Iran and Syria on the Iraqi issue.

    Analysts argue that the U.S. is trying to mold a new Mideast policy with the conference in Baghdad on March 10 and the upcoming meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh.

    PESSIMISM AMONG EGYPTIAN EXPERTS

    Although the U.S. government seems to take a positive step in changing its foreign policy in the Middle East, Egyptian experts still felt basically pessimistic about the Iraqi issue.

    Anouar Abdel-Malek, a noted writer and columnist based in Cairo, said policy changing was meant to help the U.S. get hold of the Middle East region and that's why it will not succeed.

    Abdel-Malek told Xinhua that there would be no progress or break through at the Sharm el-Sheikh conference. "The only consensus among those participants will be that Iraq should be split," he said.

    He even likened the Iraqi issue to the decade-old conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. "The Iraqi issue will be another problem like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which is no solution," Abdel-Malek said.

    Said, of Al-Ahram Center, was also pessimistic over the Iraqi issue.

    "I am pessimistic because of the present situation, based on the facts that we have," he said, adding that Iraq was getting close to a civil war and there are a lot of things needed to be done by the Iraqi government.

    The Sharm el-Sheikh conference is aimed to offer a place to those parties involved in the Iraqi issue to hold talks and create an atmosphere of understanding and trust, said Said.

    Yet given the deep divergence and intense suspicions among those parties related to the Iraqi issue, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, analysts argued that it will be a long time for parties to trust each other.

    For instance, until now, the U.S. is accusing Iran of helping to destabilize Iraq by allowing weapons and foreign fighters to cross its border. Such accusation was denied by Iran, which is believed to have deep influence in Iraq's Shiite communities.

    Another factor that would hamper U.S. efforts to resolve the Iraqi issue is that the U.S. refused to hold direct talks with Iran over its nuclear program, as is evidenced by the fact that Iran won't declare the attendance to the Sharm el-Sheikh conference until April 29, Egyptian analysts said.