Special report: 2008 Olympic Games

    By Sportswriter Gao Peng

    BEIJING, Aug. 4 (Xinhua) -- Australian swimming great Ian Thorpe said on Monday he believes that Michael Phelps' eight-gold quest at the Beijing Games will fail.

    "I don't think he will (achieve the feat)," Thorpe told reporters during an opening ceremony of Omega Pavilion in the Olympic park.

American legendary swimmer Michael Phelps smiles to reporters through the bus window at the Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing, China, Aug. 4, 2008. Some members of the U.S. Olympic delegation arrived in Beijing Monday among whom Phelps became the focus. (Xinhua/Zou Zheng) Photo Gallery>>>

    "It's not a matter of asking how many you think someone can win, because that's competition and there are too many variables," he added.

    Thorpe, who retired in 2006 citing lack of motivation, made a splash last month by saying he doubted whether Phelps is unable to equal - or better - Mark Spitz's historic seven-gold win at the 1972 Olympics.

    Phelps, in return, said Thorpe's comments could be fuel for him to do better in Beijing. The American sensation keeps a copy of the article with Thorpe's quotes in his locker as a spur.

    However, Thorpe, the greatest swimmer in Australian history and a winner of 11 world championship golds and five Olympic golds, tried to bring Phelps back to earth because he believes it's too early to predict a winner in the Olympic competition which always brings the best of every swimmer.

    "There might be someone who put on an extraordinary performance, break the world record and touch the wall ahead of Phelps," he said.

    Thorpe was just the one who once spoiled Phelps' previous same quest at the 2004 Athens Games by winning the men's 200m freestyle on which the American finished third behind him and Dutch Van den Hoogenband.

    The U.S. team then finished third at the 4x100m freestyle relay, denying Phelps a chance to equal Spitz's haul at seven. Eventually, he ended the Games with six golds although he did not take part in the 4x100m medley relay final after relinquishing his berth to teammate Ian Crocker (he was still awarded a gold due to his participation in heats).

    Thorpe said the he has a lot of respects for Phelps but winning eight golds at one Games seems out of the reach of human beings.

    "I would love to see anyone who is able to win eight gold medals," he said. "If people in the planet are capable of doing that, Michael Phelps is one of those people."

    He added the Beijing Games would be an extraordinary one for Phelps even if he were not able to win eight.

    Phelps was very close to eight-gold mark at one tournament when he won seven golds at last year's World Championships in Melbourne.

    In the recent U.S. trials, Phelps won his five individual events, setting world records in the 200m and 400m individual medley.

    Thorpe also said the U.S. would probably prevail in their perennial rivalry with Australia in the pool.

    "I think the Australian team will perform better but the U.S. team will probably won more medals," he said.

    As for the hosts, Thorpe believes they will put on a decent show. "China will do O.K.. I though probably about 12 months ago China would have produced slightly better results than what they have been done. And I still think so."